Communist Khenin could force second round

The first survey predicts a sweeping victory for Huldai in the first round. In the survey, the incumbent received support from 53 percent of those surveyed, as compared to 8 percent for Khenin and 2 percent for each of the other two candidates: Deputy Mayor and Green Party chairman Peer Visner and Major General (res.) Oren Shahor, running on an independent list. Thirty-five percent of the respondents in this survey replied that they had not yet decided for whom they would vote. After discounting the undecided voters, the results of the survey among those who have formed an opinion are: 81 percent for Huldai, 11 percent for Khenin, 4 percent for Visner and 4 percent favor Shahor.

"According to the second survey, Huldai take 37 percent of the vote and does not win in the first round, Khenin wins 14 percent, Shahor 4 percent and Visner 3 percent, while 42 percent replied that they had not decided for whom they will vote. Among the respondents who declared in the second survey that they would vote, Huldai's ability to win in the first round is borderline and he wins 45 percent of the vote, as compared to 21 percent for Khenin, 4 percent for Visner and 8 percent for Shahor. Although both surveys predict an ultimate victory for Huldai, the glaring finding that emerges from them cannot be ignored: Within two weeks, support for Huldai declined by 16 percent and dropped from 53 percent to 37 percent, while support for Khenin rose from 8 percent to 14 percent.

"The CEO of Maagar Mohot, Professor Yitzhak Katz, notes, "It can be said rationally that Dov Khenin is on the map. This isn't a flash in the pan candidate who appeared and didn't rise. Khenin has appeared and staked out a claim. He is there. It is impossible to ignore him – he is a significant factor. Nevertheless, to go on to say that he might yet double or triple his strength – that would be excessive."

"Katz estimates that Huldai will win in the first round, as the pool of undecided votes in the second survey indicates, Huldai is assured of the percentage points that he needs to cross the 40 percent line for a first round victory.

 

"However, one of the findings in the first survey should be very disturbing for Huldai: Only 51 percent of the mayor's supporters are certain that they will vote on election day.

"On Friday, the Yedioth Tel Aviv, a local newspaper, published a survey carried out on October 2 by the Dahaf Institute under the direction of Dr. Mina Zemach and taken from a sample of 501 voters. According to this survey, when sampling only those who indicate they will actually cast votes, (45 percent), with a standard deviation of 4.5 percent, Huldai's ability to win in the first round becomes less certain. In this survey, Huldai garners 41 percent as compared to 22 percent for Khenin.

 

"One Khenin supporter, former cabinet minister and former Meretz leader Yossi Sarid, who decided not to run even though he probably had a good chance, says: "Khenin has momentum, and that's excellent, but the gap in the public opinion polls is too large. Nevertheless, there is still time".
 
 From today's (Thursday, October 30, 2008) Haaretz edition*